Why Trump Supporters Are a Tiny Minority of Trump Voters
The difference is key to winning in 2022 and beyond
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A massive mistake I see Democrats making, myself included, is assuming that all Trump Voters are Trump Supporters. The caricature of Trump Voters in our minds is that they are all MAGA hat-wearing, mask-burning, die-hard Trump Supporters.
However, this is far from the case. Of the 73 million people who voted for Trump, only 2.7 million or 3.7% of his voters, donated to his campaign, and only 1.4 million or 1.9% attended his rallies in 2016. In contrast, Biden had almost twice as many donors with no cult following. When I started talking to friends who voted for Trump, they helped explain the disconnect.
In reality, most of the friends I spoke with loathed Trump and were quick to say it. They all said he had massive character flaws: from lying, to how he talked about women, to being a sore loser with the election. Their disdain went well beyond what I heard from most Biden voters about Biden, who didn’t love Biden but also didn’t have much bad to say about him either.
There are certainly die-hard Trump Supporters, but it seems like many of his voters, we’re not voting for him, but in spite of him. This problem is exacerbated by the fact that when the media reports on Trump Supporters, it is almost always at rallies or protests where they are talking with the most extreme and vocal supporters which are not representative of his voters.
So why did they vote for Trump or split their ticket for Republicans?
Trump voters in crisis
I consistently heard that they were willing to tolerate him because they were under attack. They were under attack from socialists, liberal mainstream media, progressives, and elites. Some thought they were under attack from one, most from multiple. The feeling of being under attack and in a state of crisis completely changes a person’s psychology.
When people are under attack, it is like their house is on fire. They want a firefighter to put it out. They don’t care if the fireman lied, was corrupt, or wasn’t that great at putting out the fire. At least he said he would try to put out the fire. Everyone else is like a plumber trying to fix a problem they know they have, but it simply isn’t a priority at the moment. After all, if your house burns down, who cares about the leaky sink?
Being under attack is what allows Evangelicals to vote for a someone who sleeps with porn stars.
Being under attack is what allows veterans to vote for someone who mocks Gold Star families.
Being under attack is what allows Republicans to vote for someone who embraces dictators and spends like a drunken sailor.
This realization completely changed my perspective. I realized focusing on Trump’s character flaws in Facebook posts or discussions with them was unproductive. I was speaking to the choir.
We disagreed on the extent of his character flaws, but we weren’t that far off. Instead, I should have been focusing on asking questions that challenged those underlying assumptions that they were under attack and that voting for Trump was the best way to save them. For example:
If Biden is such a socialist — why did the Democratic Socialists of America not endorse him?
If mask mandates are going to ruin America — do you disagree with drunk driving being illegal?
If the media is so unfair to Trump, why did it give him more free coverage than any other candidate?
These questions aren’t silver bullets, but I think they represent a way of thinking that is much more effective than focusing on Trump himself. I would add that it is important to first really summarize back what they are saying, so they clearly hear you articulate ‘why’ they are under attack. In most cases, especially if they are emotional, I think it is good to wait and reason with them until it feels like they have calmed down.
What the Democratic party can do
First, the concerns of people who voted for Trump and those who voted for Biden but split their vote, should be taken very seriously.
There is a huge disconnect between Democrats thinking Trump is the “worst president ever” and him getting 10 million more votes in 2020 than in 2016. Trump would have won re-election by changing less than 60,000 votes total in three states.
Not to mention, that Democrats performed far worse than expected in House and Senate races. If Democrats want to win in 2022, they need to put down the New York Times and start listening to their friends and family who voted for Trump or split their vote.
For example, when it comes to removing Confederate monuments, several of the friends I spoke with didn’t disagree that the monuments should be removed. However, they took issue with how they were being removed — by mob rule.
Instead, if Democrats advocate for democratic process like communities voting on what statues should be removed, you appeal to a shared American belief — self-governance — and undercut their ‘under attack’ narrative. You are also much more likely to see lasting change when you get a majority of people to support a change and put in the work of convincing them, as opposed to raming change down their throat. And let’s not even get started on Defund the Police!
In summary
Few Trump Voters are true Trump Supporters. Many voted for him or split their vote for Republicans out of a feeling of being under attack. By listening to Trump voters and helping them question their assumptions — as well as Democrats taking more collaborative approaches to enacting changes, we’re much more likely to see success in 2022 and beyond.
